New poll shows Boyda wins, drilling loses

As seen on Boyda Bloc and Swing State Project, a Survey USA poll commissioned by the Washington D.C. newspaper Roll Call shows Nancy Boyda beating Lynn Jenkins, CPA 50-43.

We'd like to dig a little deeper into some of the cross tabs of this poll.

1) The poll posed the question "If two candidates were running for Congress, and one says that offshore drilling is the best way to solve America's energy problems ... and the other says that America needs to identify and promote alternative sources of energy ... which candidate would you vote for?" and 56% of the people chose the candidate who wanted to identify and promote alternative resources. Once again, Kansas Republicans are on the wrong side of an issue.

2) McCain is beating Obama pretty handily, but not keeping pace even with George Bush's 2004 performance. We've said on this blog before, in all likelihood McCain will win Kansas, but if he wins it with 50-55%, that 5-10% drop could send people like Jim Slattery and Donald Betts to Washington.

3) 46% of voters have a favorable opinion of Nancy Boyda compared to only 36% of voters who have a favorable opinion of Lynn Jenkins. A staggering 45% of voters have either a neutral opinion of Lynn Jenkins or they just flat out don't know who the hell she is. Given the fact that she has been elected to statewide office twice and just won a pretty contested and well-covered primary, this ain't so good for Jenky.

4) Remember how Lynn Jenkins is so "moderate" and Nancy Boyda is so "liberal"? Well, among self-identified moderates, Nancy Boyda is winning 47%-42%. Conservatives side with Lynn 85% of the time. Only 28% of moderates have a favorable opinion of Lynn Jenkins. Don't worry Lynn, you've got George Bush coming to town...

5) The poll shows Kansans have a 36% approval rating of George W Bush, slightly higher than the national average, but pretty abysmal for a "deep red" state. Bush's approval rating among moderates? 24%.

6) Though the Ryun/Jenkins primary didn't feature the kind of fireworks many thought it would, it is clear there have been some lingering affects. Jenkins garners the support of a mere 70% of Republicans, compared to 88% of Democrats supporting Nancy Boyda.

In the end, it's hard to find any positives for Jenkins in this poll. Yes, she's only 7% down, but with this data unless she changes her strategy some (see Bush, drilling) you have to think she's pretty much at her ceiling. Her best hope is that some of the right-wingers will come to realize she is one of them, and Bush swooping in should help in that regard, but Jim Ryun can tell you how that worked for him in 2006.

The poll was conducted August 19-21 and includes 620 likely voters. It has a margin of error of +/- 4%

Will John McCain be the third Republican ever to lose Kansas?

Poll numbers show this may not be as preposterous as it sounds.

In a poll released yesterday, SurveyUSA indicates McCain holds a 49-39 lead in the state with 12% of the electorate undecided.

In a state where Republican Presidential candidates routinely put up numbers north of 60%, it's significant that McCain cannot break 50.

It should be noted that Huckabee handily won the Kansas Caucus after McCain had already effectively won the nomination and, much like the Democrats who claim they won't vote for Obama or Clinton, many of these jilted Republicans will come back into the fold before it's all said and done.

Additionally, respondents were 42% Republicans, 40% Democrat and 18% Unaffiliated. Democratic registration in the state is on the rise, but this is probably a more Democratic sample than the population as a whole.

These quirks aside, SurveyUSA has been quite successful this cycle in predicting notoriously difficult to predict primaries, so it provides at the very least for some interesting discussion.

The second thing this poll provides is a counterpoint to the recent Rasmussen poll that shows more Kansans would be less likely to vote for Obama with Kathleen Sebelius on the ticket.

The poll showed, not surprisingly, that Huckabee would be McCain's strongest running mate. Among the Democratic pairs matched with Huckabee, Obama/Sebelius does the best by far at a mere +4 for McCain.

Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty is the only McCain running mate who causes Obama to lose ground (a whole point) with Sebelius on his ticket and former North Carolina Senator John Edwards is the only Obama running mate that does better than Sebelius.

As they say, the only poll that matters is in November, but this poll lends credence to the argument that Obama makes Kansas competitive. If McCain pulls in 55% instead of 60%, that spells bad news for Republicans and could mean Obama brings Nancy Boyda, Jim Slattery and Donald Betts along for the ride.

GOP leaders: Sorry Mr. President, we have to rearrange our sock drawer

No members of Kansas' Republican Congressional delegation have gotten around to endorsing Sen. Nick Jordan in his quest to unseat popular incumbent Dennis Moore. They're very busy (though, not busy enough to keep them from endorsing a candidate for a county office in Johnson County, where neither of them live)

Those same busy schedules appear to be keeping Sens. Pat Roberts and Sam Brownback and Reps. Todd Tiahrt and Jerry Moran away from today's fundraiser with President George W. Bush.

Some of you might be saying, "See, this was a bad idea to bring the President and his record-low approval ratings."

Not so says Christian Morgan.

Kansas Republican Party executive director Christian Morgan said he doesn't believe the president's poll numbers are an issue.

"If the president's popularity really had something to do with it, then they would have stayed away from even putting their names on something with the president," Morgan said. "I don't think its a case of them skipping this event, it's a case of them having scheduling difficulties, especially when this thing was thrown together pretty quickly."

So, the fact that only 39% of voters in our Republican state support the President is of no concern to Christian. We're standing by his side because...well...why the Hell are we standing by his side?

In reality, this is just further proof that Christian Morgan, Nick Jordan and the Kansas Republican Party are so radically out of touch with everyday Kansans that they still think that George W. Bush has appeal to the average voter.

Speaking of out of touch, Pat Roberts had a perfectly legitimate reason to miss the event. He's going to be in California raising money.

Sen. Pat Roberts will be in California on a longstanding trip to raise money for his own re-election bid, campaign spokeswoman Ashley McManus said. She said Roberts was proud to be named an honorary chairman of the fundraiser and "he was proud to be with the president three weeks ago in Greensburg."

The part about Roberts supporting Bush despite the miserable failure that has been his Presidency and his awful approval ratings in Kansas should come as no surprise to anyone. Roberts has been George W. Bush's lapdog for nearly seven years. What shocked me is the cavalier manner in which his spokesmodel admitted to raising money in California.

I suppose this shouldn't surprise me either, since Roberts hasn't lived in Kansas since 1962, but I guess I always just thought since they've been trying to start a pissing match with Jim Slattery over who's more of a Kansan that they might try to downplay it just a little.

Guess not.

Pass the mud, please

I'm growing more and more disgusted with the Pat Roberts campaign each time his spokesmodel Ashley McManus opens her mouth.

Of course, Pat Roberts has always said he's tired of the way campaigns resort to slinging mud instead of focusing on the issues. After his first $50,000 ad-buy (in April), apparently the type of shoes Jim Slattery wears is considered an issue.

Now, in a recent story in the Washington D.C. newspaper The Hill, McManus is up to her typical underhanded, immature snarkiness.

Ashley McManus, a Roberts spokeswoman, said Slattery’s criticism of the war is “a bizarre thing for Jim Slattery to say, given that when he was in Congress he voted for us to go to war with Iraq [in Operation Desert Storm].

Are you serious? Is this woman really going to have us believe that voting for Operation: Desert Storm is the same thing as voting to preemptively invade a sovereign nation based on faulty intelligence (which her candidate would help cover up later on)?

Maybe that kind of stuff goes over in Virginia, Ashley, but here in Kansas, we're not buying it.

As the story went on, McManus continued to prove that she and the Roberts campaign have permanently waved bye-bye to reality.

“We look forward to a campaign based on the issues and the differences between Pat Roberts’s tireless service to Kansas and Jim Slattery, who stopped working for Kansas so he could enrich himself working for special interests,” McManus said.

Just because you heard Pat Roberts' voice at the beginning of the "gucci loafer" radio ad saying "I'm Pat Roberts, and I approved this message," that doesn't mean he...well...approved the message.

It's not just the Roberts campaign though that has separated themselves from reality. Republican consultants too seem to be basking in the false sense of security.

“I’m sure [Slattery]’ll be able to raise some money, and I’m sure that the senatorial committee will come in and spend some money too, because they’re definitely raising a lot, but I think Pat Roberts is very well-respected throughout Kansas, both in the eastern and western part of the state. And when the ads start coming up, I think that Pat Roberts will probably pull away,” [Republican consultant Aaron] Trost said.

As we've covered here extensively, the public polling data doesn't back up this claim of Roberts' popularity.

Though his overall approval rating is 54% as of 4/25, it is heavily propped up by a 70% approval rating in Western Kansas. In Eastern Kansas and Wichita, where the overwhelming majority of voters in the state live, his approval ratings are 52 and 48%. Hardly a slam-dunk for a guy who has been in Congress for 20-some years and has never got less than 62% of the vote in November.

For Roberts to win this race, he must do extremely well in Eastern Kansas and Wichita and he must pull a good number of moderates and independents into his fold. His numbers among moderates and independents? 51 and 54%.

But honestly, what does the public know about who the public likes.

BREAKING NEWS: Rasmussen poll shows Roberts is vulnerable

HUGE news from the Slattery/Roberts race. An independent Rasmussen Reports poll shows Roberts leading Slattery 52-40.

That's right, Roberts, who didn't even have an opponent in 2002 (not had a weak opponent, had NO opponent) can only muster 52% before Jim Slattery has spent one red penny on advertising.

Moreover, the poll also indicated that 17% of respondents were undecided on Jim Slattery, if those votes break 50/50, that makes it a 48-44 race before a single Slattery TV commercial hits the airwaves.

Obviously Roberts has ample campaign funds, so this will still not be an easy race, but we're here to tell you that, come September, October and November, this will be one of the races the whole nation is watching.

Inspired by our friends at Kos and some of the other major liberal blogs, we'd like to take this opportunity to put forth a challenge to our readers. We're still a very young blog, so let's start off with a modest goal, say, $100 by the Sunday at 8 p.m. Use our ActBlue widget at right or head to our ActBlue page so that we can track donations.

Why bring in the President?

Yesterday, we were the first in the blogosphere with news that President George W. Bush was bringing his low approval ratings back to Kansas for the second time this month, this time to stump for 3rd District GOP hopeful Sen. Nick Jordan.

The GOP has been almost comically unable to wrestle this seat away from Moore in a solidly Republican district. Either they run a right-wing hack (Kris Kobach) or they have a bloody primary that leaves a hapless and broke candidate (Adam Taff and Chuck "Don't call me Maynard" Ahner).

This year, some thought it might be different. Some thought that Nick Jordan, who is still pretty conservative but not perceived to be amongst the likes of Phill Kline and Kris Kobach, might be the one to start pulling those moderate Republican Johnson County voters away from Dennis Moore.

However, the KS GOP has shown a penchant for losing lately, and it looks like they're in no hurry to reverse that trend.

The GOP already brought in Dick Cheney to raise money for Jordan, who faces a 3:1 fundraising disadvantage on top of relatively low name recognition. Now, they're bringing in Bush as well.

Which begs the question; Do they really think the moderate Republican and unaffiliated voters in Johnson County that swing that election time and time again to Dennis Moore are going to be swayed by the likes of George W. Bush and Dick Cheney? If they do, they should pass whatever they're smoking.

Bush carried Johnson County with 62% of the vote in 2004, but that was four long years ago. A recent Survey USA poll shows that Bush's approval rating in Eastern Kansas (the 3rd District probably makes up over 50% of the population of "Eastern Kansas," depending on how they define the region) was a meager 34%. Moreover, 64% say they disapprove of the job he is doing, leaving only 1% of voters who aren't sure how they feel about the President.

Perhaps more importantly than Bush's general numbers are his numbers among unaffiliated voters -- you know, the ones that Nick Jordan absolutely has to woo in large numbers to have even the slightest of prayers. Among unaffiliated voters in Kansas (Survey USA does not have a subsection for party affiliating within the regions) Bush's approval rating dips to 27%. It is only 30% among self-identified moderates.

While there is no polling available for Dick Cheney's job approval rating in our fair state, it's safe to say it's probably not much better than President Bush's.

As Democrats and proud Dennis Moore supporters, we'd just like to say thank you to the Nick Jordan campaign and the KS GOP for being so out of touch with Kansans that they still actually think it's a good idea to bring Bush and Cheney to town. (Ask Jim Ryun how it worked for him in 2006!)

Head over to our new ActBlue widget on the right side of our page and help Dennis Moore fight the Bush/Cheney machine that has decided they want him out of Congress.

Breaking news: Bush to stump for Jordan in KC

Word from the KS GOP is that George W. Bush will bring his lowest-ever approval rating into Kansas City in the near future to campaign for Nick Jordan. Jordan has already brought Dick Cheney into the district to campaign on his behalf.

No word on if Sen. Jordan realizes that George W. Bush has a 34% approval rating in Eastern Kansas and only a 40% approval rating overall in the state.

We'll give you more deets as they become available.

BREAKING: Roberts downgraded by CQPolitics

We've been hammering on Pat Roberts lackluster polling data (see here and here) and his inability/unwillingness to protect American jobs (see here, here, here, here, here and here) and people are finally starting to realize that this race is going to be one worth watching. In a story released today by CQ Politics, the Roberts vs. Slattery/Jones race was downgraded (or upgraded, depending on your perspective) from "Safe Republican" to "Republican Favored."

The story had some interesting quotes from Kansas politicos, and even a GOP employee.

The GOP of course brought out their tired line about Slattery having worked in Washington, D.C. after getting caught up in the Republican Tidal Wave of 1994 and losing his gubernatorial election to Bill Graves.

“He abandoned the state 14 years ago for Washington’s special interests,” charged Corrie Kangas, political director at the Kansas Republican Party. “He’s a poster child for everything gone wrong in Washington.” She added her opinion that Roberts “has a strong record of achievements standing up for Kansans.”

Once you get over the initial shock of realizing the someone besides Christian Morgan works for the KS GOP, you can see the stupidity of this statement. Pat Roberts left Kansas in 1962 and has never looked back.

Pat Roberts is a Kansan like Sen. Arlen Specter (R-Penn.) is a Kansan.

Hell, Barack Obama's Kansas roots are practically deeper than Pat Roberts'.

But more than just having lived in Washington for the past, oh, four decades, Roberts is a lap-dog for the Bush Administration and presided over the Senate "intelligence" Committee during some of the worst atrocities committed by the United States since...ok, just since Ronald Reagan, but still.

“He’s been carrying the Bush administration’s water for seven years now,” Mike Gaughan, the executive director of the Kansas Democrats, said of Roberts. “He turned his back on middle-class Kansans. Kansans are tired of politicians who pledge allegiance to the Bush party. They’re looking for a uniting candidate.”

Finally, the piece highlights the most recent abysmal failure of Roberts' tenure in

Some observers also think Democrats may be able raise an issue about Roberts’ effectiveness in the wake of the awarding of a $40 billion contract for refueling tanker planes to a European company instead of Boeing Corporation. Boeing has factories that are major employers in Wichita, the largest city in Kansas.

“The tanker deal was a shocker, with Wichita so tied into aviation,” said Bob Beatty, an associate professor of political science at Washburn University in the state capital of Topeka. “There could be a lot of ads on this issue, not from Slattery but probably from issue groups. Especially in the Wichita area, they could come in and hammer hard and negative.”

But even that prospect left Beatty sanguine about Slattery’s chances for an upset of Roberts. “Certainly, the Republican is favored at this point. A lot of things have to happen for Slattery,” Beatty said.

It's time for a Senator who has the guts to stand up to the likes of John McCain when they want to ship Kansas jobs to France, and not do what George W. Bush tells them to.

Mr. Mediocre

Yet another Survey USA approval rating poll has been released for Sen. Pat Roberts and the "wildly popular" Senator continues to be...well...not wildly popular. (Historical analysis on Roberts lackluster polling is here)

His ratings did tick up, from 51% to 52%, but let's take a look at the numbers in depth.

In Western Kansas, where comparatively few people live, Roberts enjoyed a very strong 72% (19% of those surveyed).
In the Wichita area, his approval rating dips down to 50% (30% of those surveyed.
In Eastern Kansas, which makes up an overwhelming majority of the state's population, his approval rating dips to 46% and makes up 51% of those surveyed.

Basically, without a single iota of campaigning from Jim Slattery, a popular six-term Congressman from 2nd District in his own right, Roberts is looking at a 52-48 race. Hardly a slam dunk.

But let's look at something else: the undecideds.

In the Wichita area, 19% were unsure of their feelings on Pat Roberts. In Eastern Kansas, that number is 15% and overall it was also 15%.

That means that of the 600 adults that took the time to take part in this phone survey (which, for the record, had a margin of error of +/- 4.1%) nearly 100 of them were unsure.

Now, we do not wish to contend that this race is a lock for the Democrats either. Slattery faces a primary (Lee Jones) and Roberts will probably end up with over $4 million to slander whomever the Democratic nominee is, but it looks like the Nancy Boyda vs. Jim Ryun/Lynn Jenkins race will not be the only throwdown in Kansas this election cycle.

Cross posted at DailyKos.

“If the facts don't fit the theory, change the facts.”

This quote from Albert Einstein seems to be the mantra of the three major Republican blogs in this state.

Now that the news is starting to settle in that Jim Slattery will be joing the Democratic U.S. Senate primary, our Republican blogs have felt the need to assert Roberts' status as "well-liked."

What's the problem with this you might ask?

Sure, he's been elected numerous times by large margins, even going unopposed in 2002. But is he really well-liked?

Survey USA polls the state quite a bit, and Roberts' numbers have been pretty steady.

2/18: 51%
1/18: 51%
12/16: 56%
11/12: 51%
10/16: 55%
09/17: 57%
08/13: 54%
07/16: 52%
06/11: 51%
05/14: 52%
04/18: 48%
03/12: 50%
02/12: 49%
01/15: 52%

I could keep going, but you get the idea. The "well-liked" Senator has never been above 57% and has on two separate occassions since January of 2007 dropped below 50%. His average approval rating over the past 17 months? 52%.

That's not atrocious, I mean, he could be Sam Brownback. However, considering he has been in Congress for decades and has had no one really actively campaigning against him his entire career, it's pretty sad. And it certainly isn't insurmountable, whether he faces Lee Jones or Congressman Slattery.

So why is it that despite all evidence to the contrary, Republicans insist upon calling Sen. Roberts well-liked? They offer no statistical evidence to back up their claim, only that he hasn't been beaten yet.

I guess if you say something enough, people start to believe it.