Tuesday, April 1, 2008

Mr. Mediocre

Yet another Survey USA approval rating poll has been released for Sen. Pat Roberts and the "wildly popular" Senator continues to be...well...not wildly popular. (Historical analysis on Roberts lackluster polling is here)

His ratings did tick up, from 51% to 52%, but let's take a look at the numbers in depth.

In Western Kansas, where comparatively few people live, Roberts enjoyed a very strong 72% (19% of those surveyed).
In the Wichita area, his approval rating dips down to 50% (30% of those surveyed.
In Eastern Kansas, which makes up an overwhelming majority of the state's population, his approval rating dips to 46% and makes up 51% of those surveyed.

Basically, without a single iota of campaigning from Jim Slattery, a popular six-term Congressman from 2nd District in his own right, Roberts is looking at a 52-48 race. Hardly a slam dunk.

But let's look at something else: the undecideds.

In the Wichita area, 19% were unsure of their feelings on Pat Roberts. In Eastern Kansas, that number is 15% and overall it was also 15%.

That means that of the 600 adults that took the time to take part in this phone survey (which, for the record, had a margin of error of +/- 4.1%) nearly 100 of them were unsure.

Now, we do not wish to contend that this race is a lock for the Democrats either. Slattery faces a primary (Lee Jones) and Roberts will probably end up with over $4 million to slander whomever the Democratic nominee is, but it looks like the Nancy Boyda vs. Jim Ryun/Lynn Jenkins race will not be the only throwdown in Kansas this election cycle.

Cross posted at DailyKos.


KS Jayhawk said...

So when is Jim Slattery jumping in? Has anyone heard? I am scared that he is going to back out again on us. Then where would be with minor leaguer Lee Jones?

Anonymous said...

He has a web site and my dad has a friend at Slattery's law firm that said he has tendered his resignation. Not sure if its true, but FWIW.

Anonymous said...