We had a bit of everything yesterday; some shockers, some races that were quite literally as close as you can get and some laughers. Here's our self-promoting/self-deprecating results thread.
Jim Slattery def. Lee Jones, 69-31: Correct. Jones got more votes than I think some people predicted, but Slattery still won comfortably. There were undoubtedly some anti-Slattery votes in there from people who have seen nothing but Pat Roberts' slanderous ads, but much like Hillary Clinton supporters eventually going with Obama, the majority of these voters will still vote D come November.
Lynn Jenkins def. Jim Ryun 51-49: WRONG! If they were being totally honest, We think even Jenkins' team would have told you they were concerned heading into election night. No one, and I mean no one, saw this coming. Nancy Boyda's upset of Jim Ryun in 2006 was a shocker, but this is even more surprising than that race. Perhaps there were private polls that indicated Jenkins was surging, but we haven't heard of them. We suspect there was a great deal of "Who the hell is Lynn Jenkins. Oh well, she isn't Jim Ryun."
Nick Jordan def. Paul Showen, 76-24: Correct. Maybe a little bit of anti-Jordan sentiment in the 3rd District? Showen was even less known than Lee Jones and he didn't do a lick of campaigning, so 24% seems a little high, but it's all academic and won't have a substantial affect on the November race.
Kelly Kultala def. Mark Gilstrap(i), 61-39: Correct. And the first incumbent goes down. Some people were saying Gilstrap was safe, and while we predicted Kultala, we have to admit we didn't expect the margin to be this big. Democrats in the 5th Senate District sent a clear message that Mark Gilstrap is not one of them. This will be a race to watch come November.
Tim Owens def. Ben Hodge, 60-40: Correct. Let's all just hope and pray this signals the end of Ben Hodge's brief yet annoying political career.
Mary Pilcher Cook def. Sue Gamble, 57-44: Correct. A rare win for the conservative wing of the Republican Party on this night.
Bob Marshall def. Jacob LaTurner, 55-45: Correct. This will be another race to watch in November.
Dwayne Umbarger(i) def. Iris VanMeter, 63-38: Correct. Another big win for a moderate over a conservative. Not a good day for conservative candidates at all.
Mark Taddiken(i) def. Paul Barkey, 81-19: Correct. Wow, Barkey did even worse in a primary than he did in the 2004 General Election for the 66th House District. Again, conservative loses and loses bad.
Pete Brungart(i) def. Tom Arpke, 51-49: Correct. This one was MUCH closer than we expected, but Brungart pulled it out.
Oletha Faust-Goudeau def. K.C. Ohaeboisim, 71-30: Correct. A solid win for Faust-Goudeau, moreso than we expected.
Steve Abrams def. George Leach, 60-40: Correct. Former KS BOE members are 1-for-2.
Ruth Teichman(i) def. Andrew Evans, 57-43: Correct. Another race that was surprisingly close, but in the end another loss for conservatives.
Bill Otto(i) def. Sheila Lampe, 65-35: Correct. Repeat of 2006 primary.
John Skubal def. James Walker, 54-46: Correct. Moderate defeats conservative. Does anyone detect a pattern?
August Bogina def. John Crabtree, 58-42: Correct. A lot of people liked Crabtree in this race, but Bogina was able to pull it out. Conservatives take one.
Andy Sandler def. Mike Slattery, 50-50: Incorrect...for now. For those of you who don't believe every vote counted, as of right now these two are three votes apart. Expect a recount, we'll keep you posted.
Sean Gatewood def. Dustin Hardison, 52-41: Incorrect. After doing so well in the state senate, we're struggling somewhat in these house races.
Don Schroeder(i) def. Mitch Powell, 70-30: Correct. Not to sound like a broken record, but another conservative challenger gets crushed.
Peggy Mast(i) def. Tony Trimble, 57-43: Correct. An incumbent getting only 57% in a primary is never a good sign, but in the end she won by a comfortable margin.
Peter DeGraaf(i) def. Jeri Anderson, 51-34: Correct. Ah the power of several hours worth of incumbency.
Gail Finney def. Inga Taylor, 57-43: Incorrect. A solid win for a candidate who was drastically outspent.
Virginia Beamer(i) def. Don Hineman, 50-50: Incorrect...for now. Another amazingly close race, Beamer held off her very well-funded challenger by five votes. Again, expect a recount.
Mary Ralston def. Brandon Kenig, 54-46: Correct. It's disturbing that Kenig managed 46%.
Kathy Martin(i) def. Bill Pannbacker, 52-48: Correct. Another win for the conservatives. Martin looked to be in danger for much of the night as Pannbacker had it within a few hundred votes late, but as the final precincts came in, Martin was able to expand her lead.
Steve Howe def. Phill Kline, 60-40: Incorrect. As much as we'd love to see Phill Kline in another election, at the end of the day the risk of him still being an elected official was just too great. We're glad we were wrong on this one. Unfortunately, we're not convinced we've seen the last of ol' Phill.
Eric Rucker def. Bob Hecht(i), 64-36: Correct. One of only two incumbents to lose in the major primaries (assuming Beamer's recount holds up), Hecht was in trouble from the word go. Kline will be able to focus his energy on electing his protege Rucker.
Chad Taylor def. Jerry Berger, 70-31: Correct. A solid win for Taylor who will draw the entire conservative machine. Given today's results, we're not convinced he should be too worried.
25 out of 29, not bad if we do say so ourselves :)
Thoughts from the peanut gallery?
Showing posts with label Primary politics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Primary politics. Show all posts
Wednesday, August 6, 2008
Tuesday, August 5, 2008
Primary predictions: cleanup edition
It appears we forgot two very important legislative primaries.
Kansas Senate, District 14, Republican:
Dwayne Umbarger(i) vs. Iris Van Meter: Van Meter is another first class nut A former member of the state BOE and one of the architects of all the nonsense that body has been up to over the last several years. Thayer is in her 70s, but she has a pretty solid history of winning these primaries. Umbarger has spent nearly $30,000 and still has $40,000 left so it'll be a tough race. Umbarger.
Kansas House, District 76, Republican
Peggy Mast(i) vs. Tony Trimble: Mast is part of the "The Mexicans are taking over America" wing of the Republican party. She was the chair of the GOP's 50 Ideas Committee that went nowhere. But she's also a powerful incumbent with $10,000 in her warchest even after spending nearly $9,000 on the primary. Trimble has spent nearly $7,000, but he's out of money and still has a tough row to hoe. Mast.
Kansas Senate, District 14, Republican:
Dwayne Umbarger(i) vs. Iris Van Meter: Van Meter is another first class nut A former member of the state BOE and one of the architects of all the nonsense that body has been up to over the last several years. Thayer is in her 70s, but she has a pretty solid history of winning these primaries. Umbarger has spent nearly $30,000 and still has $40,000 left so it'll be a tough race. Umbarger.
Kansas House, District 76, Republican
Peggy Mast(i) vs. Tony Trimble: Mast is part of the "The Mexicans are taking over America" wing of the Republican party. She was the chair of the GOP's 50 Ideas Committee that went nowhere. But she's also a powerful incumbent with $10,000 in her warchest even after spending nearly $9,000 on the primary. Trimble has spent nearly $7,000, but he's out of money and still has a tough row to hoe. Mast.
Monday, August 4, 2008
Primary predictions: Kansas House, KS BOE
Though we skipped a few state Senate races in our previous post, we attempted to address each primary, even the one's that were a foregone conclusion. Obviously, with 125 seats up for election, there are quite a few primary races in the Kansas House of Representatives, and as such we have been more selective about which races we included. Again, nothing in this post is intended to be an endorsement of any particular candidate or to reflect our desired outcome. They are merely objective (well, sort of) predictions based, at least in part, on facts.
Kansas House of Representatives, District 9, Republican:
Bill Otto(i) vs. Sheila Lampe: Bill Otto is one of those representatives that makes you feel sorry for the people in his district. Not only are his politics out of step with...oh...just about everyone, he's also just flat out ridiculously weird. Unfortunately for the people of the 9th District, it doesn't look like Sheila Lampe, who is immensely qualified, will be up to the task. She lost to Otto in 2006 and though she is relatively even with Otto in the financials, past performance as well as the power of the incumbency don't bode well for her. Otto.
Kansas House of Representatives, District 19, Republican:
John Skubal vs. James Walker: Classic Johnson County Moderate v. Conservative showdown. In this case, Overland Park City Councilman John Skubal is the moderate and retired Marine James Walker is the conservative. On the money front, Walker has outspent Skubal 10 to 1, however Skubal filed his report showing nearly $9,000 cash on hand to Walker's 50 bucks. That money doesn't do him any good if it goes unspent, but we think that money left over for the final push as well as the name recognition he receives as a City Councilman will be enough. Skubal.
Kansas House of Representatives, District 23, Republican:
August Bogina vs. John Crabtree: Another day, another conservative v. moderate Republican primary in Johnson County. The winner will face 2006 candidate Milack Talia for the seat being vacated by Republican Judy Morrison. Take a look at the endorsements so far in this one and see if you can figure out who the con is and who the mod is. Bogina has received endorsements from the National Rifle Association and Kansans for Life, Crabtree is preferred by KNEA and Biz-PAC. We'll call the endorsement game a wash, since both candidates are receiving support from the big mobilizers in their respective movements. How about the money? They've each spent approximately $3,000, Bogina filed with more cash on hand, but also has substantial debts. Again, pretty much a wash. When it comes down to it, all things being equal, you have to go with the conservative in these low-turnout primaries. Bogina.
Kansas House of Representatives, District 24, Democrat:
Andy Sandler vs. Mike Slattery: This is one of only a few seriously contested Democratic primaries in the Kansas House with the winner to face Republican incumbent Ronnie Metsker. Sandler ran for the seat in 2006 and Mike Slattery is the son of former Congressman and Democratic US Senate Candidate Jim Slattery. Both candidates have spent a substantial amount of money, but Slattery can only benefit from the significant campaign organization being built by his dad. M. Slattery.
Kansas House of Representatives, District 57, Democrat:
Sean Gatewood vs. Andrew Fields vs. Dustin Hardison: Gatewood and Hardison are the only candidates in this primary who have spent any money, and Hardison has outspent Gatewood 6 to 1. Hardison, a former staffer for Senate Minority Leader Anthony Hensley, has received financial support from several statehouse Democrats and looks to be in a good position to move on. Hardison.
Kansas House of Representatives, District 74, Republican:
Mitch Powell vs. Don Schroeder(i): Powell has received the endorsement of the National Rifle Association, but Schroeder has outspent him 6 to 1. As an incumbent, if Schroeder spends his money in anything even closely resembling an intelligent fashion, all the endorsements in the world won't help Powell. Schroeder.
Kansas House of Representatives, District 81, Republican:
Patsy Allen vs. Jeri Anderson vs. Arlene Burrow vs. Peter DeGraaf vs. Carlene Eye: This five-way primary for the seat formerly held by the late Ted Powers should be one of the more interesting races in all of Kansas come tomorrow. DeGraaf is technically the incumbent, having been sworn in during Sine Die after winning a special election. He and Anderson are the only two to have raised any significant campaign funds, but DeGraaf has raised $11,000 to Anderson's $4,000. DeGraaf won amongst the precinct committee persons and has a substantial money advantage. The winner will face Democrat Mark Hardison, father of 57th District candidate Dustin Hardison. DeGraaf.
Kansas House of Representatives, District 84, Democrat:
Inga Taylor vs. Gail Finney: Just like the 29th Senate District, this seat which was once held by Donald Betts (before Oletha Faust-Goudeau) faces a Democratic primary. Finney, an office-holder in the Sedgwick County Democratic primary, raised a respectable sum of nearly $6,000, but Taylor brought in a surprising haul of just a shade under $13,000. Both are fairly well known in the district, but a 2 to 1 fundraising disadvantage will be tough to overcome. Taylor.
Kansas House of Representatives, District 118, Republican:
Virginia Beemer(i) vs. Don Hineman: And the award for best-funded primary challenger of an incumbent goes to...Don Hineman!! Hineman, the chairman of the moderate, pro-evolution group Kansas Alliance for Education, raised $17,225.00, of which he has spent over $15,000 to unseat the incumbent. He has been a Dighton City Councilman and a Lane County Commissioner. Hineman is well-known, well-funded and has a message that sells in western Kansas. Hineman.
Kansas Board of Education, District 2, Republican:
Mary Ca Ralston vs. Brandon Kenig: Brandon Kenig is a 22 year-old, uber-conservative blogger from the Johnson County area. We're all for bloggers and young people getting involved in the political process, but Kenig is a little too much like Ben Hodge he only has a few hundred dollars to work with. Ralston.
Kansas Board of Education, District 6, Republican:
Kathy Martin(i) vs. Bill Pannbacker: Martin is as crazy as crazy gets. She ousted an incumbent moderate Republican in the 2004 primary, so she knows how to take out well-funded, well-liked pro-Science Republicans. Pannbacker does have a slight fundraising edge, $6,900 to $5,900 and has been modestly outspent $2,700 to $2,000. Pannbacker is a moderate who served four years on a local school board in Washington County before it was consolidated. As much as it pains us, Pannbacker may be on a fool's errand. Martin.
Kansas House of Representatives, District 9, Republican:
Bill Otto(i) vs. Sheila Lampe: Bill Otto is one of those representatives that makes you feel sorry for the people in his district. Not only are his politics out of step with...oh...just about everyone, he's also just flat out ridiculously weird. Unfortunately for the people of the 9th District, it doesn't look like Sheila Lampe, who is immensely qualified, will be up to the task. She lost to Otto in 2006 and though she is relatively even with Otto in the financials, past performance as well as the power of the incumbency don't bode well for her. Otto.
Kansas House of Representatives, District 19, Republican:
John Skubal vs. James Walker: Classic Johnson County Moderate v. Conservative showdown. In this case, Overland Park City Councilman John Skubal is the moderate and retired Marine James Walker is the conservative. On the money front, Walker has outspent Skubal 10 to 1, however Skubal filed his report showing nearly $9,000 cash on hand to Walker's 50 bucks. That money doesn't do him any good if it goes unspent, but we think that money left over for the final push as well as the name recognition he receives as a City Councilman will be enough. Skubal.
Kansas House of Representatives, District 23, Republican:
August Bogina vs. John Crabtree: Another day, another conservative v. moderate Republican primary in Johnson County. The winner will face 2006 candidate Milack Talia for the seat being vacated by Republican Judy Morrison. Take a look at the endorsements so far in this one and see if you can figure out who the con is and who the mod is. Bogina has received endorsements from the National Rifle Association and Kansans for Life, Crabtree is preferred by KNEA and Biz-PAC. We'll call the endorsement game a wash, since both candidates are receiving support from the big mobilizers in their respective movements. How about the money? They've each spent approximately $3,000, Bogina filed with more cash on hand, but also has substantial debts. Again, pretty much a wash. When it comes down to it, all things being equal, you have to go with the conservative in these low-turnout primaries. Bogina.
Kansas House of Representatives, District 24, Democrat:
Andy Sandler vs. Mike Slattery: This is one of only a few seriously contested Democratic primaries in the Kansas House with the winner to face Republican incumbent Ronnie Metsker. Sandler ran for the seat in 2006 and Mike Slattery is the son of former Congressman and Democratic US Senate Candidate Jim Slattery. Both candidates have spent a substantial amount of money, but Slattery can only benefit from the significant campaign organization being built by his dad. M. Slattery.
Kansas House of Representatives, District 57, Democrat:
Sean Gatewood vs. Andrew Fields vs. Dustin Hardison: Gatewood and Hardison are the only candidates in this primary who have spent any money, and Hardison has outspent Gatewood 6 to 1. Hardison, a former staffer for Senate Minority Leader Anthony Hensley, has received financial support from several statehouse Democrats and looks to be in a good position to move on. Hardison.
Kansas House of Representatives, District 74, Republican:
Mitch Powell vs. Don Schroeder(i): Powell has received the endorsement of the National Rifle Association, but Schroeder has outspent him 6 to 1. As an incumbent, if Schroeder spends his money in anything even closely resembling an intelligent fashion, all the endorsements in the world won't help Powell. Schroeder.
Kansas House of Representatives, District 81, Republican:
Patsy Allen vs. Jeri Anderson vs. Arlene Burrow vs. Peter DeGraaf vs. Carlene Eye: This five-way primary for the seat formerly held by the late Ted Powers should be one of the more interesting races in all of Kansas come tomorrow. DeGraaf is technically the incumbent, having been sworn in during Sine Die after winning a special election. He and Anderson are the only two to have raised any significant campaign funds, but DeGraaf has raised $11,000 to Anderson's $4,000. DeGraaf won amongst the precinct committee persons and has a substantial money advantage. The winner will face Democrat Mark Hardison, father of 57th District candidate Dustin Hardison. DeGraaf.
Kansas House of Representatives, District 84, Democrat:
Inga Taylor vs. Gail Finney: Just like the 29th Senate District, this seat which was once held by Donald Betts (before Oletha Faust-Goudeau) faces a Democratic primary. Finney, an office-holder in the Sedgwick County Democratic primary, raised a respectable sum of nearly $6,000, but Taylor brought in a surprising haul of just a shade under $13,000. Both are fairly well known in the district, but a 2 to 1 fundraising disadvantage will be tough to overcome. Taylor.
Kansas House of Representatives, District 118, Republican:
Virginia Beemer(i) vs. Don Hineman: And the award for best-funded primary challenger of an incumbent goes to...Don Hineman!! Hineman, the chairman of the moderate, pro-evolution group Kansas Alliance for Education, raised $17,225.00, of which he has spent over $15,000 to unseat the incumbent. He has been a Dighton City Councilman and a Lane County Commissioner. Hineman is well-known, well-funded and has a message that sells in western Kansas. Hineman.
Kansas Board of Education, District 2, Republican:
Mary Ca Ralston vs. Brandon Kenig: Brandon Kenig is a 22 year-old, uber-conservative blogger from the Johnson County area. We're all for bloggers and young people getting involved in the political process, but Kenig is a little too much like Ben Hodge he only has a few hundred dollars to work with. Ralston.
Kansas Board of Education, District 6, Republican:
Kathy Martin(i) vs. Bill Pannbacker: Martin is as crazy as crazy gets. She ousted an incumbent moderate Republican in the 2004 primary, so she knows how to take out well-funded, well-liked pro-Science Republicans. Pannbacker does have a slight fundraising edge, $6,900 to $5,900 and has been modestly outspent $2,700 to $2,000. Pannbacker is a moderate who served four years on a local school board in Washington County before it was consolidated. As much as it pains us, Pannbacker may be on a fool's errand. Martin.
Primary predictions: Federal, DA, KS Senate
Don't forget to vote in the primary election tomorrow. Polls are open from 7 am to 7 pm. Below are our predictions. They are just predictions and do not, in any way shape or form, constitute an endorsement of any particular candidate.
United States Senate, Democrat:
Jim Slattery vs. Lee Jones. Slattery just crossed the $1 million threshold and has been travelling the state for months. He has received substantial amounts of press exposure in all the major media markets and many people in the well-populated 2nd District remember him fondly from his days in the US House. The people who do know who Lee Jones is remember him as the guy who got his rear-end handed to him by Sam Brownback in 2002. This one won't even be close. Slattery.
United States House, 3rd District, Republican:
Nick Jordan vs...someone. What? You didn't realize there was a primary here? Neither did most people. This race isn't worth me looking up the name of Jordan's primary opponent. Showen or something. Moving on. Jordan.
United States House, 2nd District, Republican:
Jim Ryun vs. Lynn Jenkins: Early in the election season, many observers believed this race would be close. Then Lynn Jenkins started "campaigning." Ryun has loads of money and has been on TV all over the district for weeks. Though the race got a little negative in the end, the predicted fireworks never even materialized. The fact that Jenkins appears to be leaving a few hundred thousand bucks in the bank tells us she is mailing this one in. Ryun.
Johnson County District Attorney, Republican:
Phill Kline vs. Steve Howe: StayRedKansas points out a SurveyUSA poll which shows Kline trailing by eight points. Though we can't discredit this particular poll, never underestimate the power of mobilized, organized, right-wing fanatics in low-turnout primaries. Kline.
Shawnee County District Attorney, Republican:
Robert Hecht (i) vs. Eric Rucker: Hecht is a two-term incumbent who has never enjoyed overwhelming popularity. Rucker is a well-funded disciple of Phill Kline who has spent tens of thousands of dollars on the race, not including the outside money that has flowed in from a Johnson County PAC (where Rucker is Kline's top assistant) which has been running radio ads and sending out postcards. See the argument for Kline in Johnson County. Rucker.
Shawnee County District Attorney, Democrat:
Chad Taylor vs. Jerry Berger: Taylor is a well-respected but young lawyer in Topeka and reports indicate he has hands down won the ever-not-so-important sign war. Berger is a well-established attorney and business owner that some consider to be a little sketchy. Both are well-funded, both have been on the radio and both have hundreds of signs up throughout Shawnee County. This race may end up being one of the closest primaries in the state. Coin-flip. Taylor.
Kansas Senate, District 5, Democrat:
Kelly Kultala vs. Mark Gilstrap(i): In a race where Governor Kathleen Sebelius and Senate Minority Leader Anthony Hensley have endorsed a challenger over an incumbent, Gilstrap has spent tens of thousands of dollars defending his seat (though a substantial amount of that was to pay back a loan to himself), Kultala might be an upset candidate. The district is a strong one for Democrats and Gilstrap may be a bit conservative relative to his constituents. Incumbency is a powerful thing, but will it be powerful enough? Kultala.
Kansas Senate, District 8, Republican:
Tim Owens vs. Ben Hodge: A battle of two State Reps who wanted a bigger paycheck/ego boost, these two Republicans will battle it out. Owens has outraised Hodge 3:1 and outspent him 5:1 and the more people get to know Ben Hodge, the less they tend to like him. Owens.
Kansas Senate, District 10, Republican:
Sue Gamble vs. Mary Pilcher Cook: The race to fill ladder-climbing Nick Jordan's vacated seat. Gamble was a respected member of the State School Board and Mary Pilcher Cook is a nutjob who has already lost multiple statehouse elections. However, Pilcher Cook has spent nearly $30,000 to win this seat. Pilcher Cook.
Kansas Senate, District 13, Republican:
Jacob LaTurner vs. Bob Marshall: The numbers and the geography indicate that this seat is relatively safe for Dems, but these two candidates have spent an incredible amount of money in an attempt to pick up the Pittsburg-area seat being vacated by psuedo-Democrat Jim Barone. Altogether, these two candidates have spent nearly $50,000, but Marshall has almost a 2:1 advantage in the category. Marshall.
Kansas Senate, District 16, Republican:
Ty Masterson vs. Will Carpenter: Masterson is a former State Rep, but he faces a substantial deficit in dollars spent despite outraising Carpenter by $6,000.00. In the end, Masterson still has $17,000 on hand after the filing and much of Carpenter's money is his own. Masterson.
Kansas Senate, District 18, Republican:
Jim Zeller vs. Gary Parnell vs. Clarence Hinchy: These three battle for the right to play a potential David to Laura Kelly's Goliath. Zeller has raised nearly $20,000 and while Hinchy brought in a respectable amount, it doesn't look like it will be enough to overtake Zeller, who is a member of Huelskamp's army. Parnell hasn't raised a single cent. Zeller.
Kansas Senate, District 21, Republican:
Mark Taddiken(i) vs. Paul Barkey: Barkey was outraised by $10,000 in the recent cycle and didn't show a lot of ability to be successful when he ran against Democrat Sydney Carlin in 2004. He will be one of many members of Huelskamp's army to fall short on Tuesday. Taddiken.
Kansas Senate, District 24, Republican:
Pete Brungart(i) vs. Tom Arpke: Another Huelskamp challenger. Though Arpke has spent almost $10,000, Brungart is too well-funded (he has spent almost $17,000 and still has $65,000 in the bank) and too well-known to lose to an idealogue.
Kansas Senate, District 29, Democrat:
KC Ohaeboisim vs. Oletha Faust-Goudeau: This is Donald Betts' former seat. Faust-Goudeau is well-known in the district, having served as the Representative for the 84th District in the House. She is well-funded and although Ohaeboisim out spent her $12,000 to $9,000, we feel she is well-known enough to prevail. Faust-Goudeau.
Kansas Senate, District 32, Republican:
Steve Abrams vs. George Leach: The winner of this primary will challenge incumbent Democrat Greta Goodwin in November. Abrams is a former chair of the State BOE and a certifiable right-wing nut. Though he outraised his primary opponent 2:1, he has only spent about $1,000 more on his campaign. Abrams is well-known from his time on the board and has a dedicated base of wingnuts to carry him home. Abrams.
Kansas Senate, District 33, Republican:
Ruth Teichman(i) vs. Andrew Evans: Evans is a rural preacher and another Hueslkamp recruit taking on an incumbent Senator. Though Evans seems to be running a pretty good insurgent campaign, Teichman has spent $63,000 on her re-election so far and still has nearly 40 grand left. Teichman.
United States Senate, Democrat:
Jim Slattery vs. Lee Jones. Slattery just crossed the $1 million threshold and has been travelling the state for months. He has received substantial amounts of press exposure in all the major media markets and many people in the well-populated 2nd District remember him fondly from his days in the US House. The people who do know who Lee Jones is remember him as the guy who got his rear-end handed to him by Sam Brownback in 2002. This one won't even be close. Slattery.
United States House, 3rd District, Republican:
Nick Jordan vs...someone. What? You didn't realize there was a primary here? Neither did most people. This race isn't worth me looking up the name of Jordan's primary opponent. Showen or something. Moving on. Jordan.
United States House, 2nd District, Republican:
Jim Ryun vs. Lynn Jenkins: Early in the election season, many observers believed this race would be close. Then Lynn Jenkins started "campaigning." Ryun has loads of money and has been on TV all over the district for weeks. Though the race got a little negative in the end, the predicted fireworks never even materialized. The fact that Jenkins appears to be leaving a few hundred thousand bucks in the bank tells us she is mailing this one in. Ryun.
Johnson County District Attorney, Republican:
Phill Kline vs. Steve Howe: StayRedKansas points out a SurveyUSA poll which shows Kline trailing by eight points. Though we can't discredit this particular poll, never underestimate the power of mobilized, organized, right-wing fanatics in low-turnout primaries. Kline.
Shawnee County District Attorney, Republican:
Robert Hecht (i) vs. Eric Rucker: Hecht is a two-term incumbent who has never enjoyed overwhelming popularity. Rucker is a well-funded disciple of Phill Kline who has spent tens of thousands of dollars on the race, not including the outside money that has flowed in from a Johnson County PAC (where Rucker is Kline's top assistant) which has been running radio ads and sending out postcards. See the argument for Kline in Johnson County. Rucker.
Shawnee County District Attorney, Democrat:
Chad Taylor vs. Jerry Berger: Taylor is a well-respected but young lawyer in Topeka and reports indicate he has hands down won the ever-not-so-important sign war. Berger is a well-established attorney and business owner that some consider to be a little sketchy. Both are well-funded, both have been on the radio and both have hundreds of signs up throughout Shawnee County. This race may end up being one of the closest primaries in the state. Coin-flip. Taylor.
Kansas Senate, District 5, Democrat:
Kelly Kultala vs. Mark Gilstrap(i): In a race where Governor Kathleen Sebelius and Senate Minority Leader Anthony Hensley have endorsed a challenger over an incumbent, Gilstrap has spent tens of thousands of dollars defending his seat (though a substantial amount of that was to pay back a loan to himself), Kultala might be an upset candidate. The district is a strong one for Democrats and Gilstrap may be a bit conservative relative to his constituents. Incumbency is a powerful thing, but will it be powerful enough? Kultala.
Kansas Senate, District 8, Republican:
Tim Owens vs. Ben Hodge: A battle of two State Reps who wanted a bigger paycheck/ego boost, these two Republicans will battle it out. Owens has outraised Hodge 3:1 and outspent him 5:1 and the more people get to know Ben Hodge, the less they tend to like him. Owens.
Kansas Senate, District 10, Republican:
Sue Gamble vs. Mary Pilcher Cook: The race to fill ladder-climbing Nick Jordan's vacated seat. Gamble was a respected member of the State School Board and Mary Pilcher Cook is a nutjob who has already lost multiple statehouse elections. However, Pilcher Cook has spent nearly $30,000 to win this seat. Pilcher Cook.
Kansas Senate, District 13, Republican:
Jacob LaTurner vs. Bob Marshall: The numbers and the geography indicate that this seat is relatively safe for Dems, but these two candidates have spent an incredible amount of money in an attempt to pick up the Pittsburg-area seat being vacated by psuedo-Democrat Jim Barone. Altogether, these two candidates have spent nearly $50,000, but Marshall has almost a 2:1 advantage in the category. Marshall.
Kansas Senate, District 16, Republican:
Ty Masterson vs. Will Carpenter: Masterson is a former State Rep, but he faces a substantial deficit in dollars spent despite outraising Carpenter by $6,000.00. In the end, Masterson still has $17,000 on hand after the filing and much of Carpenter's money is his own. Masterson.
Kansas Senate, District 18, Republican:
Jim Zeller vs. Gary Parnell vs. Clarence Hinchy: These three battle for the right to play a potential David to Laura Kelly's Goliath. Zeller has raised nearly $20,000 and while Hinchy brought in a respectable amount, it doesn't look like it will be enough to overtake Zeller, who is a member of Huelskamp's army. Parnell hasn't raised a single cent. Zeller.
Kansas Senate, District 21, Republican:
Mark Taddiken(i) vs. Paul Barkey: Barkey was outraised by $10,000 in the recent cycle and didn't show a lot of ability to be successful when he ran against Democrat Sydney Carlin in 2004. He will be one of many members of Huelskamp's army to fall short on Tuesday. Taddiken.
Kansas Senate, District 24, Republican:
Pete Brungart(i) vs. Tom Arpke: Another Huelskamp challenger. Though Arpke has spent almost $10,000, Brungart is too well-funded (he has spent almost $17,000 and still has $65,000 in the bank) and too well-known to lose to an idealogue.
Kansas Senate, District 29, Democrat:
KC Ohaeboisim vs. Oletha Faust-Goudeau: This is Donald Betts' former seat. Faust-Goudeau is well-known in the district, having served as the Representative for the 84th District in the House. She is well-funded and although Ohaeboisim out spent her $12,000 to $9,000, we feel she is well-known enough to prevail. Faust-Goudeau.
Kansas Senate, District 32, Republican:
Steve Abrams vs. George Leach: The winner of this primary will challenge incumbent Democrat Greta Goodwin in November. Abrams is a former chair of the State BOE and a certifiable right-wing nut. Though he outraised his primary opponent 2:1, he has only spent about $1,000 more on his campaign. Abrams is well-known from his time on the board and has a dedicated base of wingnuts to carry him home. Abrams.
Kansas Senate, District 33, Republican:
Ruth Teichman(i) vs. Andrew Evans: Evans is a rural preacher and another Hueslkamp recruit taking on an incumbent Senator. Though Evans seems to be running a pretty good insurgent campaign, Teichman has spent $63,000 on her re-election so far and still has nearly 40 grand left. Teichman.
Wednesday, May 7, 2008
Is this over yet?
Dear Sen. Clinton,
We're writing you this letter today not as supporters of you or Sen. Obama, but as Democrats. We have made it a priority to endorse neither you nor Sen. Obama on this blog because we feel that lots of good Democrats wholeheartedly support both of you and in the end, we'd be giddy with an Obama Administration or a Clinton Administration.
With that in mind, we write you this letter today asking you to withdraw your name from conention for the Democratic nomination for President of the United States.
We have known for quite some time, as I'm sure you have as well, that your road to the nomination was going to depend on seating Florida and Michigan's delegates and convincing a significant majority of the unpledged superdelegates to support you. However, after Sen. Obama won convincingly in North Carolina and took you down to the wire in Indiana, it's just impossible for you to secure the nomination without some sort of last second deal-making that in our estimation would be detrimental to the party.
Sen. Obama leads you by 155 delegates with only 217 delegates left to be awarded, and the demographics of the remaining states make anything but a split of those last delegates highly unlikely.
The scorched earth mentality that this primary has taken on makes continuing forward a suicide mission. As we continue to gash at each other's throats, John McCain is out on the campaign trail in the battleground states framing himself. He's telling voters that he's a maverick, when we know that the Straight Talk Express has had four flat tires for a few years now. Sen. McCain is telling voters in Ohio and Florida and Missouri and Colorado that he's a new voice, but we all know that he represents four more years of the same failed Bush policies.
It's time to put aside our own personal ambitions and do what's best for the party and for the country. While you would have been a great candidate, the voters have spoken and Sen. Obama came out on top. It's time to admit defeat.
Moreover, when giving your concession speech, please plead with your supporters to put aside all the animosity of the primary and unite behind one candidate, Sen. Barack Obama, so that we can send Sen. McCain out to pasture where he belongs. This is not about Hillary Clinton. This is not about Barack Obama. This is about the Democratic Party and the people of the United States. We are not endorsing Sen. Obama or unendorsing you, we are just pleading that you let the curtain come down on a valiant effort made by a great candidate and let this party and this country move on.
Sincerly,
The Left Brain team
We're writing you this letter today not as supporters of you or Sen. Obama, but as Democrats. We have made it a priority to endorse neither you nor Sen. Obama on this blog because we feel that lots of good Democrats wholeheartedly support both of you and in the end, we'd be giddy with an Obama Administration or a Clinton Administration.
With that in mind, we write you this letter today asking you to withdraw your name from conention for the Democratic nomination for President of the United States.
We have known for quite some time, as I'm sure you have as well, that your road to the nomination was going to depend on seating Florida and Michigan's delegates and convincing a significant majority of the unpledged superdelegates to support you. However, after Sen. Obama won convincingly in North Carolina and took you down to the wire in Indiana, it's just impossible for you to secure the nomination without some sort of last second deal-making that in our estimation would be detrimental to the party.
Sen. Obama leads you by 155 delegates with only 217 delegates left to be awarded, and the demographics of the remaining states make anything but a split of those last delegates highly unlikely.
The scorched earth mentality that this primary has taken on makes continuing forward a suicide mission. As we continue to gash at each other's throats, John McCain is out on the campaign trail in the battleground states framing himself. He's telling voters that he's a maverick, when we know that the Straight Talk Express has had four flat tires for a few years now. Sen. McCain is telling voters in Ohio and Florida and Missouri and Colorado that he's a new voice, but we all know that he represents four more years of the same failed Bush policies.
It's time to put aside our own personal ambitions and do what's best for the party and for the country. While you would have been a great candidate, the voters have spoken and Sen. Obama came out on top. It's time to admit defeat.
Moreover, when giving your concession speech, please plead with your supporters to put aside all the animosity of the primary and unite behind one candidate, Sen. Barack Obama, so that we can send Sen. McCain out to pasture where he belongs. This is not about Hillary Clinton. This is not about Barack Obama. This is about the Democratic Party and the people of the United States. We are not endorsing Sen. Obama or unendorsing you, we are just pleading that you let the curtain come down on a valiant effort made by a great candidate and let this party and this country move on.
Sincerly,
The Left Brain team
Tuesday, March 18, 2008
Monday, March 10, 2008
It's 3 AM: Do you know who your actors are supporting?
DISCLAIMER: LEFT BRAIN KANSAS DOES NOT ENDORSE EITHER PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE. WE JUST FELT THIS WAS IRONIC AND WORTH SHARING.
The now infamous "3 AM" ad run in Ohio by Hillary Clinton -- largely credited with pushing the Senator over the edge in the March 4 Ohio primary -- has taken on a new wrinkle.
It seems the actress who is portrayed as the blissfully sleeping child in this commercial is actually an 18 year-old Barack Obama supporter. (If you're thinking "That girl looks like she's 8, not 18" you're absolutely right, the footage is from a 10 year-old commercial for a railroad company.)
To make things even more interesting, this is not the first such irony of this Presidential cycle. In January, Sen. Clinton had an emotional moment on the campaign trail in the days leading up to the New Hampshire primary.
Much like the Ohio commercial, many people have pointed to this incident as a major factor in her victory there.
The irony? The woman who asked the question voted for Obama the next day.
What does this mean? Most likely nothing. But this blogger finds the whole situation to be indicative of this crazy primary. Two major events which led to momentum-halting victories for one candidate involved supporters of another candidate.
But is really funny is that these supporters who ended up unwillingly leading their opponent to victory weren't making offensive statements or getting arrested. No, it was an innocent question on the campaign trail and a 10 year-old gig in a commercial.
It's a crazy world out there.
The now infamous "3 AM" ad run in Ohio by Hillary Clinton -- largely credited with pushing the Senator over the edge in the March 4 Ohio primary -- has taken on a new wrinkle.
It seems the actress who is portrayed as the blissfully sleeping child in this commercial is actually an 18 year-old Barack Obama supporter. (If you're thinking "That girl looks like she's 8, not 18" you're absolutely right, the footage is from a 10 year-old commercial for a railroad company.)
To make things even more interesting, this is not the first such irony of this Presidential cycle. In January, Sen. Clinton had an emotional moment on the campaign trail in the days leading up to the New Hampshire primary.
Much like the Ohio commercial, many people have pointed to this incident as a major factor in her victory there.
The irony? The woman who asked the question voted for Obama the next day.
What does this mean? Most likely nothing. But this blogger finds the whole situation to be indicative of this crazy primary. Two major events which led to momentum-halting victories for one candidate involved supporters of another candidate.
But is really funny is that these supporters who ended up unwillingly leading their opponent to victory weren't making offensive statements or getting arrested. No, it was an innocent question on the campaign trail and a 10 year-old gig in a commercial.
It's a crazy world out there.
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