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Wednesday, August 6, 2008

Primary results thread: How'd we do?

We had a bit of everything yesterday; some shockers, some races that were quite literally as close as you can get and some laughers. Here's our self-promoting/self-deprecating results thread.

Jim Slattery def. Lee Jones, 69-31: Correct. Jones got more votes than I think some people predicted, but Slattery still won comfortably. There were undoubtedly some anti-Slattery votes in there from people who have seen nothing but Pat Roberts' slanderous ads, but much like Hillary Clinton supporters eventually going with Obama, the majority of these voters will still vote D come November.

Lynn Jenkins def. Jim Ryun 51-49: WRONG! If they were being totally honest, We think even Jenkins' team would have told you they were concerned heading into election night. No one, and I mean no one, saw this coming. Nancy Boyda's upset of Jim Ryun in 2006 was a shocker, but this is even more surprising than that race. Perhaps there were private polls that indicated Jenkins was surging, but we haven't heard of them. We suspect there was a great deal of "Who the hell is Lynn Jenkins. Oh well, she isn't Jim Ryun."

Nick Jordan def. Paul Showen, 76-24: Correct. Maybe a little bit of anti-Jordan sentiment in the 3rd District? Showen was even less known than Lee Jones and he didn't do a lick of campaigning, so 24% seems a little high, but it's all academic and won't have a substantial affect on the November race.

Kelly Kultala def. Mark Gilstrap(i), 61-39: Correct. And the first incumbent goes down. Some people were saying Gilstrap was safe, and while we predicted Kultala, we have to admit we didn't expect the margin to be this big. Democrats in the 5th Senate District sent a clear message that Mark Gilstrap is not one of them. This will be a race to watch come November.

Tim Owens def. Ben Hodge, 60-40: Correct. Let's all just hope and pray this signals the end of Ben Hodge's brief yet annoying political career.

Mary Pilcher Cook def. Sue Gamble, 57-44: Correct. A rare win for the conservative wing of the Republican Party on this night.

Bob Marshall def. Jacob LaTurner, 55-45: Correct. This will be another race to watch in November.

Dwayne Umbarger(i) def. Iris VanMeter, 63-38: Correct. Another big win for a moderate over a conservative. Not a good day for conservative candidates at all.

Mark Taddiken(i) def. Paul Barkey, 81-19: Correct. Wow, Barkey did even worse in a primary than he did in the 2004 General Election for the 66th House District. Again, conservative loses and loses bad.

Pete Brungart(i) def. Tom Arpke, 51-49: Correct. This one was MUCH closer than we expected, but Brungart pulled it out.

Oletha Faust-Goudeau def. K.C. Ohaeboisim, 71-30: Correct. A solid win for Faust-Goudeau, moreso than we expected.

Steve Abrams def. George Leach, 60-40: Correct. Former KS BOE members are 1-for-2.

Ruth Teichman(i) def. Andrew Evans, 57-43: Correct. Another race that was surprisingly close, but in the end another loss for conservatives.

Bill Otto(i) def. Sheila Lampe, 65-35: Correct. Repeat of 2006 primary.

John Skubal def. James Walker, 54-46: Correct. Moderate defeats conservative. Does anyone detect a pattern?

August Bogina def. John Crabtree, 58-42: Correct. A lot of people liked Crabtree in this race, but Bogina was able to pull it out. Conservatives take one.

Andy Sandler def. Mike Slattery, 50-50: Incorrect...for now. For those of you who don't believe every vote counted, as of right now these two are three votes apart. Expect a recount, we'll keep you posted.

Sean Gatewood def. Dustin Hardison, 52-41: Incorrect. After doing so well in the state senate, we're struggling somewhat in these house races.

Don Schroeder(i) def. Mitch Powell, 70-30: Correct. Not to sound like a broken record, but another conservative challenger gets crushed.

Peggy Mast(i) def. Tony Trimble, 57-43: Correct. An incumbent getting only 57% in a primary is never a good sign, but in the end she won by a comfortable margin.

Peter DeGraaf(i) def. Jeri Anderson, 51-34: Correct. Ah the power of several hours worth of incumbency.

Gail Finney def. Inga Taylor, 57-43: Incorrect. A solid win for a candidate who was drastically outspent.

Virginia Beamer(i) def. Don Hineman, 50-50: Incorrect...for now. Another amazingly close race, Beamer held off her very well-funded challenger by five votes. Again, expect a recount.

Mary Ralston def. Brandon Kenig, 54-46: Correct. It's disturbing that Kenig managed 46%.

Kathy Martin(i) def. Bill Pannbacker, 52-48: Correct. Another win for the conservatives. Martin looked to be in danger for much of the night as Pannbacker had it within a few hundred votes late, but as the final precincts came in, Martin was able to expand her lead.

Steve Howe def. Phill Kline, 60-40: Incorrect. As much as we'd love to see Phill Kline in another election, at the end of the day the risk of him still being an elected official was just too great. We're glad we were wrong on this one. Unfortunately, we're not convinced we've seen the last of ol' Phill.

Eric Rucker def. Bob Hecht(i), 64-36: Correct. One of only two incumbents to lose in the major primaries (assuming Beamer's recount holds up), Hecht was in trouble from the word go. Kline will be able to focus his energy on electing his protege Rucker.

Chad Taylor def. Jerry Berger, 70-31: Correct. A solid win for Taylor who will draw the entire conservative machine. Given today's results, we're not convinced he should be too worried.

25 out of 29, not bad if we do say so ourselves :)

Thoughts from the peanut gallery?





10 comments:

Max said...

Goodbye Phill Kline, goodbye.

Can't believe how close the Sandler/Slattery race was. Never have I felt my vote counted more. I was pretty torn between the two. It came down to Sandler having more specific plans on issues, while Slattery seemed pretty vague and generic. I'm sure he can learn a lot from the experience and be a better candidate in the future.

I'm still kinda shocked I had TWO Democrats to choose from. It wasn't that long ago this House seat went uncontested by Republicans.

Anonymous said...

peanut gallery got 100% io your 25/29.

Slattery wins in Aug. to lose in Nov. Voters can never trust Slattery since he represents special interest groups. Better to stick with boring crappy Roberts as the lessor of 2 evils.

Jenkins=no surprise over has-been Ryun.

Jordan results dismal enough to indicate Jordan's political career about the same as Phill's--soon to end.































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Jenkins beat a has been Ryun-question is can she beat Boyda? And even moe important, why?

Jordan results dismal and merely shows he will lose in Nov. big time.

Anonymous said...

Agree with comment Jordan campaign will have no affect (sic) on 3rd District race.

Other than his campaign will benefit do nothing Moore to another re-election.

Which leaves me wondering how are we ever going to get rid of worthless do nothing politicians like Roberts and Moore who have gotten us into this rotten mess we are in.

Both elections are picking who can we tolerate rather than who can represent our state in DC.

Anonymous said...

Sean Gatewood not Andrew Field won the nomination for the 57th house district. This race showed that money is not an accurate predictor of outcome.

Anonymous said...

Guess who's back?

http://bluetiderising.blogspot.com/

Michelle said...

The URL in my name links to an interesting piece looking at the Kline/Ryun defeats from a pro-choice trend perspective. It does seem like many in the nation media writing about this race were not expecting Jenkins.

Anonymous said...

So glad to see that Ryun was defeated by Lynn Jenkins who is the less viable candidate in my opinion. After watching the Republican debate between the two for about five minutes, my husband concluded that Jenkins appeared to be "impaired" in some way. Certainly the thinking of those on the right seems to be impaired, but what we mean is that the woman had ingested too much of something.

Anonymous said...

Beamer has not beaten Hineman. There are still many provisional ballots uncounted, most from areas that Hineman won easily. When those votes are finally counted, then there may be a recount, paid for by the loser.

Anonymous said...

Five 118th district counties canvassed and considered provisionals this morning. Hineman picked up 26 votes and Beamer picked up 5. That’s a net gain of 21 for Don, and gives him a lead of 16 in the overall vote total. There are 21 provisionals still to be considered in Trego, Rush, and Gove Counties on Monday morning. Beamer's chances are slightly worse than a future electoral win for Phill.

Max said...

Looks like you were right about Slattery after all!

http://www.kansascity.com/shawnee_mission/story/744941.html