Monday, August 4, 2008

Primary predictions: Federal, DA, KS Senate

Don't forget to vote in the primary election tomorrow. Polls are open from 7 am to 7 pm. Below are our predictions. They are just predictions and do not, in any way shape or form, constitute an endorsement of any particular candidate.

United States Senate, Democrat:
Jim Slattery vs. Lee Jones. Slattery just crossed the $1 million threshold and has been travelling the state for months. He has received substantial amounts of press exposure in all the major media markets and many people in the well-populated 2nd District remember him fondly from his days in the US House. The people who do know who Lee Jones is remember him as the guy who got his rear-end handed to him by Sam Brownback in 2002. This one won't even be close. Slattery.

United States House, 3rd District, Republican:
Nick Jordan vs...someone. What? You didn't realize there was a primary here? Neither did most people. This race isn't worth me looking up the name of Jordan's primary opponent. Showen or something. Moving on. Jordan.

United States House, 2nd District, Republican:
Jim Ryun vs. Lynn Jenkins: Early in the election season, many observers believed this race would be close. Then Lynn Jenkins started "campaigning." Ryun has loads of money and has been on TV all over the district for weeks. Though the race got a little negative in the end, the predicted fireworks never even materialized. The fact that Jenkins appears to be leaving a few hundred thousand bucks in the bank tells us she is mailing this one in. Ryun.

Johnson County District Attorney, Republican:
Phill Kline vs. Steve Howe: StayRedKansas points out a SurveyUSA poll which shows Kline trailing by eight points. Though we can't discredit this particular poll, never underestimate the power of mobilized, organized, right-wing fanatics in low-turnout primaries. Kline.

Shawnee County District Attorney, Republican:
Robert Hecht (i) vs. Eric Rucker: Hecht is a two-term incumbent who has never enjoyed overwhelming popularity. Rucker is a well-funded disciple of Phill Kline who has spent tens of thousands of dollars on the race, not including the outside money that has flowed in from a Johnson County PAC (where Rucker is Kline's top assistant) which has been running radio ads and sending out postcards. See the argument for Kline in Johnson County. Rucker.

Shawnee County District Attorney, Democrat:
Chad Taylor vs. Jerry Berger: Taylor is a well-respected but young lawyer in Topeka and reports indicate he has hands down won the ever-not-so-important sign war. Berger is a well-established attorney and business owner that some consider to be a little sketchy. Both are well-funded, both have been on the radio and both have hundreds of signs up throughout Shawnee County. This race may end up being one of the closest primaries in the state. Coin-flip. Taylor.

Kansas Senate, District 5, Democrat:
Kelly Kultala vs. Mark Gilstrap(i): In a race where Governor Kathleen Sebelius and Senate Minority Leader Anthony Hensley have endorsed a challenger over an incumbent, Gilstrap has spent tens of thousands of dollars defending his seat (though a substantial amount of that was to pay back a loan to himself), Kultala might be an upset candidate. The district is a strong one for Democrats and Gilstrap may be a bit conservative relative to his constituents. Incumbency is a powerful thing, but will it be powerful enough? Kultala.

Kansas Senate, District 8, Republican:
Tim Owens vs. Ben Hodge: A battle of two State Reps who wanted a bigger paycheck/ego boost, these two Republicans will battle it out. Owens has outraised Hodge 3:1 and outspent him 5:1 and the more people get to know Ben Hodge, the less they tend to like him. Owens.

Kansas Senate, District 10, Republican:
Sue Gamble vs. Mary Pilcher Cook: The race to fill ladder-climbing Nick Jordan's vacated seat. Gamble was a respected member of the State School Board and Mary Pilcher Cook is a nutjob who has already lost multiple statehouse elections. However, Pilcher Cook has spent nearly $30,000 to win this seat. Pilcher Cook.

Kansas Senate, District 13, Republican:
Jacob LaTurner vs. Bob Marshall: The numbers and the geography indicate that this seat is relatively safe for Dems, but these two candidates have spent an incredible amount of money in an attempt to pick up the Pittsburg-area seat being vacated by psuedo-Democrat Jim Barone. Altogether, these two candidates have spent nearly $50,000, but Marshall has almost a 2:1 advantage in the category. Marshall.

Kansas Senate, District 16, Republican:
Ty Masterson vs. Will Carpenter: Masterson is a former State Rep, but he faces a substantial deficit in dollars spent despite outraising Carpenter by $6,000.00. In the end, Masterson still has $17,000 on hand after the filing and much of Carpenter's money is his own. Masterson.

Kansas Senate, District 18, Republican:
Jim Zeller vs. Gary Parnell vs. Clarence Hinchy: These three battle for the right to play a potential David to Laura Kelly's Goliath. Zeller has raised nearly $20,000 and while Hinchy brought in a respectable amount, it doesn't look like it will be enough to overtake Zeller, who is a member of Huelskamp's army. Parnell hasn't raised a single cent. Zeller.

Kansas Senate, District 21, Republican:
Mark Taddiken(i) vs. Paul Barkey: Barkey was outraised by $10,000 in the recent cycle and didn't show a lot of ability to be successful when he ran against Democrat Sydney Carlin in 2004. He will be one of many members of Huelskamp's army to fall short on Tuesday. Taddiken.

Kansas Senate, District 24, Republican:
Pete Brungart(i) vs. Tom Arpke: Another Huelskamp challenger. Though Arpke has spent almost $10,000, Brungart is too well-funded (he has spent almost $17,000 and still has $65,000 in the bank) and too well-known to lose to an idealogue.

Kansas Senate, District 29, Democrat:
KC Ohaeboisim vs. Oletha Faust-Goudeau: This is Donald Betts' former seat. Faust-Goudeau is well-known in the district, having served as the Representative for the 84th District in the House. She is well-funded and although Ohaeboisim out spent her $12,000 to $9,000, we feel she is well-known enough to prevail. Faust-Goudeau.

Kansas Senate, District 32, Republican:
Steve Abrams vs. George Leach: The winner of this primary will challenge incumbent Democrat Greta Goodwin in November. Abrams is a former chair of the State BOE and a certifiable right-wing nut. Though he outraised his primary opponent 2:1, he has only spent about $1,000 more on his campaign. Abrams is well-known from his time on the board and has a dedicated base of wingnuts to carry him home. Abrams.

Kansas Senate, District 33, Republican:
Ruth Teichman(i) vs. Andrew Evans: Evans is a rural preacher and another Hueslkamp recruit taking on an incumbent Senator. Though Evans seems to be running a pretty good insurgent campaign, Teichman has spent $63,000 on her re-election so far and still has nearly 40 grand left. Teichman.

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