As seen on Boyda Bloc and Swing State Project, a Survey USA poll commissioned by the Washington D.C. newspaper Roll Call shows Nancy Boyda beating Lynn Jenkins, CPA 50-43.
We'd like to dig a little deeper into some of the cross tabs of this poll.
1) The poll posed the question "If two candidates were running for Congress, and one says that offshore drilling is the best way to solve America's energy problems ... and the other says that America needs to identify and promote alternative sources of energy ... which candidate would you vote for?" and 56% of the people chose the candidate who wanted to identify and promote alternative resources. Once again, Kansas Republicans are on the wrong side of an issue.
2) McCain is beating Obama pretty handily, but not keeping pace even with George Bush's 2004 performance. We've said on this blog before, in all likelihood McCain will win Kansas, but if he wins it with 50-55%, that 5-10% drop could send people like Jim Slattery and Donald Betts to Washington.
3) 46% of voters have a favorable opinion of Nancy Boyda compared to only 36% of voters who have a favorable opinion of Lynn Jenkins. A staggering 45% of voters have either a neutral opinion of Lynn Jenkins or they just flat out don't know who the hell she is. Given the fact that she has been elected to statewide office twice and just won a pretty contested and well-covered primary, this ain't so good for Jenky.
4) Remember how Lynn Jenkins is so "moderate" and Nancy Boyda is so "liberal"? Well, among self-identified moderates, Nancy Boyda is winning 47%-42%. Conservatives side with Lynn 85% of the time. Only 28% of moderates have a favorable opinion of Lynn Jenkins. Don't worry Lynn, you've got George Bush coming to town...
5) The poll shows Kansans have a 36% approval rating of George W Bush, slightly higher than the national average, but pretty abysmal for a "deep red" state. Bush's approval rating among moderates? 24%.
6) Though the Ryun/Jenkins primary didn't feature the kind of fireworks many thought it would, it is clear there have been some lingering affects. Jenkins garners the support of a mere 70% of Republicans, compared to 88% of Democrats supporting Nancy Boyda.
In the end, it's hard to find any positives for Jenkins in this poll. Yes, she's only 7% down, but with this data unless she changes her strategy some (see Bush, drilling) you have to think she's pretty much at her ceiling. Her best hope is that some of the right-wingers will come to realize she is one of them, and Bush swooping in should help in that regard, but Jim Ryun can tell you how that worked for him in 2006.
The poll was conducted August 19-21 and includes 620 likely voters. It has a margin of error of +/- 4%
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3 comments:
Remember, Ryun had a poll that said he was 44 points up. Jenkins knows how to win as an underdog.
Boyda was up by 30 in that DCCC poll as little as 2 months ago. Granted, dynamics change after the primary, but Boydas support has fallen since that time, too.
How can you say that Jenkins has hit her ceiling when half of voters haven't heard of her? She has a lot more potential supporters out there.
Anon,
Firstly, Republican primary voters voted against Jim Ryun, not for Lynn Jenkins, so its disingenuous to say that means she's good as an underdog.
Secondly, as Ryun proved in 2006, a strong, hard-working moderate-to-liberal Democrat beats a died in the wool conservative every time.
This district is predominantly moderate, and Jenkins polls terribly amongst moderates. Plus she's bringing in George Bush, who polls terribly amongst everyone, but especially mods.
Got my invitation to the Bush thing for Jenkins. At 500 bucks or more. Should I go?
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